Options Expected Value Calculator | Know Your Edge Before You Trade

The Math That Separates Winners From Losers

Most traders lose money because they feel like a trade is good instead of knowing it's good.

Expected Value (EV) is the single most important number in trading. It tells you the average outcome if you repeated a trade thousands of times.

Positive EV = Make money over time Negative EV = Lose money over time

It's that simple. Yet most traders never calculate it.

What You Get

📊 Professional Excel Spreadsheet with 5 sheets and 100+ formulas:

① EV Calculator (Main Dashboard)

• Enter your trade parameters
• See instant EV calculation
• Compare "hold to expiration" vs "managed" strategies
• Get a clear TRADE/DON'T TRADE verdict

② Scenario Analysis

• Compare 7 different exit strategies
• See which management approach maximizes EV
• What-if analysis for premium and probability changes

③ Trade Comparison

• Compare up to 4 trades side-by-side
• Find the highest-EV opportunity
• Stop choosing trades randomly

④ Position Sizing

• Kelly Criterion calculator
• Risk-based position limits
• Never over-size a position again

⑤ How To Use Guide

• Step-by-step instructions
• Formula explanations
• Tips for better trades

Key Metrics Calculated

Metric ------ What It Tells You

Expected Value ----- Average P&L per trade

Risk/Reward Ratio ----- Max loss vs max profit

Breakeven Win Rate ----- Minimum win rate to not lose

Your Edge ----- How much you beat breakeven

Kelly % ----- Optimal position size

Tradability Score ----- Should you take this trade?

Perfect For

✅ Credit spread traders (put spreads, call spreads) ✅ Iron condor and iron butterfly traders ✅ Debit spread traders ✅ Anyone who wants to know their edge, not guess

Why This Matters

"The goal of a successful trader is to make the best trades. Money is secondary." — Alexander Elder

You can have a 70% win rate and still lose money if your losses are bigger than your wins.

You can have a 40% win rate and make money if your wins are bigger than your losses.

EV captures both. It's the only number that matters.

How It Works

1. Enter your trade — Symbol, premium, spread width, DTE
2. Enter probabilities — From your broker's option chain
3. Set management rules — Take profit %, stop loss
4. Get your answer — Positive EV? Take the trade. Negative? Pass.

That's it. No guessing. No hoping. Just math.

Instant Download

• Works in Excel, Google Sheets, and LibreOffice
• All formulas included (no macros)
• Dark theme, professional design
• Lifetime access, free updates

FAQ

Q: Where do I get the probabilities? A: Your broker's option chain shows Probability of Profit (POP). You can also use free calculators like Option Alpha or TastyTrade.

Q: Does this work for all option strategies? A: Yes — credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors, butterflies, and any defined-risk strategy.

Q: Do I need to know math? A: No. Just enter numbers, get answers. The formulas are built in.

Risk Warning

Options trading involves substantial risk. This calculator helps you make informed decisions, but past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Only trade with money you can afford to lose.